What are the possible impacts of the new Bolsa Família program?

An analysis of its effects on poverty and GDP

Authors

  • José Bergamin Universidade de São Paulo (Usp), Faculdade e Economia e Administração, São Paulo – SP – Brasil.
  • Gustavo Pereira Serra Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Faculdade de Ciências e Letras, Araraquara – SP – Brasil.
  • Marina da Silva Sanches Universidade de São Paulo (Usp), Faculdade e Economia e Administração, São Paulo – SP – Brasil.
  • João Pedro de Freitas Gomes Universidade de São Paulo (Usp), Faculdade e Economia e Administração, São Paulo – SP – Brasil.
  • Luiza Nassif Pires Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp), Instituto de Economia, Campinas – SP – Brasil.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.64997/2358-5951-18815

Keywords:

Cash Transfer, Poverty, Race, Gender, Fiscal Multipliers

Abstract

The present study estimates the impacts on poverty and extreme poverty rates and on the level of economic activity of different proposals that were discussed in the public debate preceding the implementation of the New PBF. In the first proposal (P1), the benefit returns to the 2022 base value of R$ 400 per family. The second proposal (P2) maintains a single benefit of R$ 600 per family. The approved structure (P3) establishes the base benefit of R$ 600 with variable remunerations. We found that with P3 it is possible to lift approximately 5.1 million people out of poverty and 6.8 million people out of extreme poverty. The economic impacts of P3 were calculated based on fiscal multipliers already estimated for Brazil by specialized literature. The New PBF has an impact on the economy's output that is 2.4 to 3.7 percentage points higher than the P1 scenario. Regarding P2, the New PBF has an effect on GDP that is 0.6 to 1 percentage point higher.

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Published

29/05/2024

Issue

Vol. 8 No. 1/2 (2022)

Section

Artigos

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Copyright (c) 2024 Revista Iniciativa Econômica - ISSN: 2358-5951

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