Uncertainty: the case of productive development policy

Abstract

The Productive Development Policy was the industrial policy that was in force in Brazil between 2008 and 2010, elaborated in a favorable economic context, and found itself months after its implementation with the fence of the subprime crisis. This abrupt change in the international economic situation shows the level of uncertainty that permeates the social reality. The concepts of uncertainty are diverse, describe the reality with greater or lesser level of unpredictability. Based on the case of this policy, the objective of this article is to expose concepts of uncertainty and to relate them to the design of the goals of this policy, its consistency with the crisis scenario and how its performance and the level of employment generation in the industry was affected by the change sudden conjuncture. For that, a bibliographical review was used in authors who debate the theme, and in governmental documents and databases. It was perceived through the work that the social reality is surrounded by strong uncertainty, in the procedural and fundamental sense, in which there is lack of information and inability of the agents to formulate precise actions regarding the future. Even if this agent is the government, which theoretically has great availability of information and technical capacity of projection and high planning.