Theory of complexity, the hypothesis of evolution through punctuated equilibrium and the long term historical interpretation

Abstract

This paper proposes that the use of the approach of the theory of complexity allows the restablishment of the primacy of the long term analysis, such as Braudel's, over the present tendency of viewing the historical processes from the point of view of a short term perspective. It suggests that the idea of evolution through punctuated equilibrium, contrary to the authors who follow this path, allows the explanation of the quick processes of historical changes (such as the industrial revolution, for example) as something produced by the same dinamics that produces long periods of estability that survey the history of mankind. Finally, this text tries to draw implications from this argument to rebuild our capacity of producing the necessary conditions for the industrialization in Brazil. The conclusion is that we have to reorganize thoroughly our ideas about the strategies of development, incorporating the principles of the theory of complexity.